A request for assistance: all views welcome by email if this is too offtopic Beliefs vs delusions Roger and Jimske mentioned addiction, and each was looking at one half of the contingency table.  Roger implied that counting doesn't guarantee non-addiction, but seems to feel willingness to buy into hunch-_base_d systems increases the probability of addiction.  It also  seems likely that some counters or wannabees may meet some of the criteria of problem gambling . I am affiliated with a self-help organization trying to develop intervention strategies for people with gambling problems .  I am interested in obtaining any and  all of your views about how one's understanding of Probability and the mechanics of games contributes to   problem gambling . I am particularly interested in the notion that remediating people's understanding may assist in decreasing the problems with their gambling. However, people's beliefs about games appear to border on the delusional, at times, and can be difficult to remediate  (present company excluded . Comments? Please also offer suggestions about how to make the math/probability stuff more accessible/digestible by the average person with a gambling problem . I am looking for ideas for demonstrating concepts in a graphic or concrete manner for people who cannot follow the math, and therefore cannot believe in it. (aside from flipping coins to compile a distribution). I believe a significant portion of variance is accounted for by illusions of control and certain cognitive biases that negatively influence judgement and decision-making (factors in the oft-cited need for discipline and money-management ). I find it interesting that a several posters have cited the need for faith that their counting strategies will see them through the variance troughs. Is it at all paradoxical that people must deny what their senses are telling them, when they are losing as counters, and when they are winning as clumpers? Do  BJ p_layer_s (and gamblers in general) have to dissociate themselves from their normal feedback mechanisms in order to continue playing? Does this contribute to the development of compulsions/obsessions and deluding the self about what's really going on (i.e. the extent to which gambling is interfering with or replacing normal life?) Thanks to the moderators if they allow this post. I don't see much worthy discussion going on anywhere else. Thanks for any and all input. This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it